Trade Synopsis: Short Gold 

Trade Recommendation: Short Gold (CMP 3274$), TP 2985$ & SL 3460$.

Introduction: Gold had a dream run since last 12 months almost rising 40% since June’24. It has been the most favored investment destination by central banks globally in the current theme of dedollarisation, increase in geopolitical risk premium and a large fall in DXY from 110 levels to 97 levels currently. Almost all the stars were aligned for it’s dream run in the last 12 months. 

But we believe that the recent 3500 high achieved on 22nd April is a medium term high and it is unlikely that Gold rises above it. We believe that Gold market deficit has peaked for now. With geopolitical risk premium waning as global equities surge ahead to new record highs, we believe Gold destination as a safe haven will be questioned sooner than later. 

US growth could return with a bang as Fed cuts into neutral level of 3% by H1CY26 & fiscal stimulus continues unabated due to tax cuts. Positioning was households are now record long gold in at least half a century. Gold as a share of GDP also reached a 50-year high of 0.5% this year based on our price forecasts. Already stretched asset allocation to gold could limit the scope for further upside for household buying.

Technicals: We believe Gold has broken down from a long-term channel recently & is headed towards 2985 levels support. 

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